MLB Pick: Los Angles Angels at New York Mets

  • by

Pinnacle Odds: Los Angles Angels +142 at New York Mets -154 Total 7.5

by Greg Dempson

The Mets return home off a disastrous road trip losing six in a row and seven games overall. Injuries to their starting pitching staff has taxed their bullpen and they are 25-08 to the over in all games and 12-04 OVER the total at home.

The Angles start Ricky Nolasco tonight. He’s walked only 11 batters in 45.7 innings, (in 8 starts,) while striking out 44. His problem this season has been the long ball, 13 home runs this season, 8 on the road as well as 4 in his last two starts. When pitching against the Mets his ERA is 5.11 but he hasn’t faced them since 2013. Nolasco is 27-12 vs. the money line when pitching against an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse and he is also 61-45 and +30.90-units vs. the money line in night road games in his career.

The Mets start Jacob DeGrom who has never faced the Mets. He has not fared well with an ERA of 6.35 in his last three starts. Their bullpen is 3-4 in home saves allowing 65 hits in 75 innings but he has a respectable ERA of 3.24.


  • The Mets are 21-03 to the OVER (and +17.70-units in night games this season.
  • The Angels are 17-05 to the OVER after scoring and allowing 6 or more runs in two straight games.
  • The Mets are 9-0 to the OVER after batting .200 or worse over a three game span this season.
  • The Angles are 14-04-01 to the over on the road in Inter-League games.


  • Play home teams OVER the total when the O/U is 7 to 8.5 runs when backed by a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season and playing against an opponent with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season.This system  is 225-145 = 61% to the over and +73.80-units the past five seasons.

Met-Line BONUS

  • Play on all American League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season after scoring 9 or more runs.This system is 37-21 = 64% and +32.40-units the past five seasons.
  • Play against any National League team with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season when playing against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more home runs per start. This system is 86-50 = 63% and +44.10-units the past five seasons and 9-2 and +6.80-units this season. in Review

I’m 5-6 with my MLB selections for this season.

MLB Pick

My selection on this game is to sail over the total of 7.5 runs