MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

  • by

Pinnacle Odds: Milwaukee Brewers +156 at Chicago Cubs -170 Total 9.5

by Greg Dempson

The Brewers took the opening game of this three game series last night, (6-3,)  at Wrigley Field with the first pitch in tonight’s contest scheduled for 8:05 ET. Jimmy Nelson get the start for the Brewers.

In two appearances this season his ERA is 1.38, WHIP 0.846, with Nelson/Team going 2-0 while pitching a combined 13 innings allowing 2 earned runs on 9 hits, (one of which was a homer,) while walking only 2 batters and striking out 13. With Nelson walking only 2 batters, that is a remarkable turnaround from last season when Nelson led the majors in free passes.

The Cubs, losers of four in a row at home, send Brett Anderson to the mound. He/team at 1-1 this season. He’s been able to pitch out of trouble, (4 walks vs. the Dodgers and 1 vs. the Brewers striking out 6 on 8 hits and one earned run in 10.7 innings over his two starts.

Anderson has posted a 2.84 ERA in two starts against the Brewers but has not received a decision. These two pitchers opposed one another on April 7 in Chicago with the Brewers prevailing 2-1.

The Not so “Full Nelson”

  • Nelson has been able to limit the damage done by the Cubs’ duo of Rizzo and Bryant, with Rizzo going 5 for 28 at bats while striking out 7 times, and Bryant at only 5 for 22 in 27 at bats with 5 strikeouts.
  • Whenever Nelson pitched well in his previous start the team has responded nicely in his follow-up appearance going 15-07.

Bad Brett

  • Brett Anderson is 09-19 in the month of April and -15.0-units as well as 0-6 on Tuesday’s and -10.0-units.
  • Anderson is also -21.0-units in night games in his career plus 05-14 and -15.20-units against the money line in home games after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last two outings

 Left Side Right Side

  • Milwaukee is 32-21 and +20.0-units against the money line when facing left-handed starters the last two seasons and on a current run of 15-07 in their last 22 when facing lefties.
  • The Cubs are off to a poor start vs. righties this season at 3-6 while batting .220 an averaging only 3.2 runs per game.
  • The Brewers are 8-1 in their last nine road games.

Awesome Angles

  • The Cubs are historically poor vs. division opponents at home going 400-368 and -86.10-units since 1997.
  • The Brewers are +14.50-units against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game the last two seasons.
  • Chicago is -197.80-units vs. the money line when playing against right-handed starters. in Review 

  • I’m off to a 1-4 start with my Every Edge MLB selections for -3.24-units. Remember I’m playing underdogs and nothing favored higher than -120 and lower.

MLB Pick

Onto my two for Tuesday selections, for this evening I am backing the Brewers at +161 for the full game as well as investing on Milwaukee in the first five innings at +155 on the money line.