By Greg Dempson
The first pitch is schedule for 7:05 ET at Camden Yards as the Orioles host the Tigers. Baltimore leas the American League in home runs this season with 49 including 12 in their last three games. As for the Tigers, they’ve allowed 15 home runs in their last seven games.
To compound their problem Detroit sends Mike Pelfrey to the mound this evening. Pelfrey is 0–4 with an ERA of 6.23 ERA. He allowed 3 homers and 4 runs in five+ innings resulting in a 10–5 loss to the Rangers last Saturday. In his last three starts Pelfrey has allowed 15 earned runs in 15.7 innings. In four starts vs. the Orioles Pelfrey’s WHIP is 1.791 while his ERA is 4.43.
Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound for Baltimore. He is 5–11 vs. the Tigers with an ERA of 5.86 and a WHIP of 1.509. Jimenez lasted 4.7 innings in each of his two starts against the Tigers last season allowing 7 and 6 earned runs. This season he’s 2–3 with an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP of 1.598.
Around the Diamonds
· Pelfrey is 31–15 to the over as a road underdog of +125 to +175.
· Detroit’s bullpen has struggled in their last 5 games, (ERA of 7.00,) and in this scenario the team is 17–07 to the over the past two seasons.
· Play all teams that strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season to sail over the total when the O/U is 9 or 9.5 runs, after allowing 3 runs or less in four straight games, (applies to the Orioles.) This system is 18–04 to the over the past three seasons as well as 36–14 = 73% to the over the past five seasons with an average of 11.4 PRG.
My Every Edge MLB selection for this evening is to take the Tigers/Orioles at over 9 runs at –125. (I would not bet the game over at 9.5 or more runs.)