Both the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons started the season with double-digit victories and tonight they’ll look for win No. 2. We breakdown the matchups with key stats against the spread plus our top play and a look-ahead to Week 3 NFL odds
Led by Peyton Manning, the Indianapolis Colts were 15-2 in primetime road games from 2005 to 2010
WEEK 2 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
After a full season to recover from neck surgery, QB Manning signed on with the Broncos and made his home debut in Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The Broncos scored 31 points in Manning’s first game while the Falcons were busy putting up a 40-burger in Kansas City.
NFL odds for tonight’s contest opened at Falcons -3.5 and 49 but heavy online betting action for the road dog and the “Over” edged the point spread to -3 and bumped the total up to 52. We featured this game in our NFL Week 2 Early Picks, suggesting a play on the Over 51.
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PEYTON POWER TAKES OVER
From 2005 through the 2010 season, Indianapolis was 37-14 away from home (31-18-2 ATS), the best straight-up road record in the NFL. During that span, Indy posted 28 overs and 23 unders and QB Manning was nearly unbeatable under the lights.
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MANNING PRIME-TIME ROAD RECORD SINCE 2005
Led by one of the league’s top passers, the Indianapolis Colts were 15-2 SU in primetime road games from 2005 to 2010.
2005: 2-0; Defeated Baltimore (Sun.) and New England (Mon.)
2006: 2-0; Defeated New York Giants (Sun.) and New England (Sun.)
2007: 3-1; Defeated Jacksonville (Mon.), Atlanta (Thu.) and Baltimore (Sun.); Lost to San Diego (Sun.)
2008: 2-1; Defeated San Diego (Sun.) and Jacksonville (Thu.); Lost to Tennessee (Mon.)
2009: 4-0; Defeated Miami (Mon.), Arizona (Sun.), Tennessee (Sun.) and Jacksonville (Thurs.)
2010: 2-0: Defeated Washington (Sun.) and Tennessee (Thu.)
NON-CONFERENCE NEMESIS
Atlanta and Denver have played each other five times since 1994 and the Falcons own a 1-4 SU record (3-2 ATS) with 4 overs and 1 under. The Broncos were home favorites in three of the first four meetings and 11.5-point road favorites in Georgia for Week 5, 1997.
In 2008, Atlanta (-6) played host to Denver and the Broncos won 24-20 straight-up. It was the lowest scoring final of all five games. Including that game, the average final score when these teams hookup is 55.8 PPG
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SLOW PLAY
Manning’s famous eight-minute drives are clock killers but for that to be effective, Manning’s team needs to be in the lead. HC Fox has a pedestrian 16-18-3 ATS record against non-conference foes, while Atlanta’s HC Smith is 12-4 SU and 11-4-1 ATS.
Each of these teams has the personnel to move the sticks and they can grind the clock with an offensive tempo that keeps their opponent off the field but QB Ryan and Manning can strike deep in a second’s notice. With the mentality it will take 30 points to win this game, we still like this one to sail over the number.
Monday Night Picks: Take the Over
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