Pinnacle Odds Cleveland Cavaliers +7 at Golden State Warriors -7 Total 225
by Greg Dempson
Earlier this week I offered up some data on the first half and some wagering opportunities when these two foes meet in game one of this best-of-seven finals for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
As of this Thursday morning report, the numbers I see posted still favor the Warriors at -7 across the board with the total pegged at 224/224.5.
Each team has been strong this post season with the Warriors becoming the first team to ever enter the finals with a perfect three series sweep vs. the Trailblazers, Jazz and Spurs. The Cavs almost duplicated the Warriors success story with just one lone hiccup, that came in game three at home in their series vs. the Celtics.
For Golden State, the big difference this season is the addition of Kevin Durant who replaced Harrison Barnes. In his last six games Durant has shot 56.6% making 89 of 160 attempts. If he stays healthy I believe that will be the difference maker in this series.
Cleveland’s new addition to this series vs. last season’s finale vs. the Warriors was the acquisition of Kyle Korver who has made 41.5% of his shots from beyond the arc going 22 of 53 in the post season. The Cavaliers have also been the most accurate 3-point shooting team in the playoffs, making 43.5% of their attempts.
Here are the top three full game side and total systems for the first contest.
· Play against favorites in a game involving two horrible defensive teams that each allow 102 or more points per game after scoring 110 points or more points in four straight games. This system is 48-21 = 69.6% ATS since 1996.
Highest Over System
· After going over the total by a combined 18 or more points in their previous game, (applies to Cleveland,) play the full game over the total when playing against an opponent that’s gone over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game. This system is 445-298 = 60% to the over since 1996 producing a whopping +117.20-units of profit. The average total in this system has been a meager 198 points vs. a total on tonight’s game that is 224. (The average score in this system has been 201 points or 23 less than tonight’s total.
Highest Under System
· After two consecutive wins by 10 or more points, play home teams under the total when the O/U is greater than or equal to 200 points when playing against an opponent that off back-to-back games whereby a combined score of 205 or more points occurred. This system is 22-49 = 69% to the under the past five seasons. The average posted total in this system has been 213 vs. an average final score of 208 combined points.
The total is very high for two teams that have had extended rest so I cannot support a play on the full game total in game one and I have a beer and pizza lean to the under in the first half. Enjoy the game and good fortune with your wagers this evening.