By Greg Dempson
The ball tips at 9:00 ET at the Oracle Area with the winner advancing to play the Cleveland Cavaliers.
I wonder how many Warriors fans suffered broken ankles after jumping off the Golden State bandwagon when they were trailing 3–1 in the series, but, last season’s champions would appear to be in the driver’s seat by forcing a game 7 as they defeated the Thunder on their home court, (108–101.)
I believe the Warriors will come away with a home victory tonight but I cannot fathom Klay Thompson having a night anywhere close to his Saturday night spectacular which featured a 3-for-all performance as he made 11 – 3 point shots, a NBA Playoff record. The Warriors outscored the Thunder in 3’s, (63 points to 9.).
Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 57 points but were only 1 out of 13 from 3-point range in that loss and 3 of 14 from the field in the fourth quarter. It was also Curry’s best road performance in this series as he scored 31 points with 10 rebounds and 9 assists.
Full Court Press
· The Warriors have won the first half in their three playoff home games vs. the Thunder, (58–50,) as well as (57–49) and (60–47,) with all three having Golden State covering the first half lines. In their two regular season contests Golden State, when hosting Oklahoma City, won the first half by scores of (63–61) as well as (73–59,) splitting ATS at 1–1.
· For the regular season and including the playoffs Golden State won the first half, at home, by an average score of 59.2 to 49.7 for an average first half MOV, (margin of victory,) of 9.3 points.
· Although I am not on the total in the first half it is interesting to note the current total in the first half is 111 at –105, which is 3, 5 and 6 points higher than the three combined points of 108, 106 and 107. As long as people continue to bet the over why should a book compromise themselves with a lower total?
· My investment for this game is on the Warriors in the first half supported by the following superb system.
· Play on teams with a straight up winning record in the first half, (when they’re a home favorites of –2 to –5.5 points,) after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more combined points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season. This system has really stepped up the past five seasons at 39–15 = 72% ATS as well as 26–08 = 76% ATS the past three seasons including 3–1 ATS this season. The average first half line in this system has been –3.7 vs. an average margin of victory of 5.5 first half points.
My Every Edge Monday evening selection is on the Golden State Warriors –4.5 at –105 in the first half.
For additional winning systems and selections visit www.gregdempson.com.