NBA Pick: Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors

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Pinnacle Odds: Indiana Pacers +3.5 at Toronto Raptors -3.5 Total 197

by Greg Dempson

The Raptors play host to the Pacers with the tip time at 6:05 ET at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto. The total on this game opened at 201 and it’s either 201 or 201.5 at all the “outs” I have. I anticipate an underwhelming performance by these two teams tonight.

Since the injury to Kyle Lowry the Raptors have played 12 games and the team is 3-8-1 to the UNDER. When the total is less than 207 the Raptors are 0-5-1 to the under without their star.

As for the Pacers their “pace” is anything but fast as Indiana has sailed over the total only once since the All-Star break going 01-10 UNDER the total and 0-6 to the UNDER when the total was less than 207. Their defense is allowing an average of 88.18 points per game when home and away. Recent form has the Pacers scoring more at home then when they’re on the road. Since returning from the All-Star break Indiana is averaging only 94.57 points per game when on the road exceeding 100 points only once, February 27 at Houston, (117-98.) In their last five road contests their scoring has dipped even further, 99, 97, 88, 85 and 81 points for an average PPG of 90.0. Their defense is also stingier in their last five road contests as no team has scored more than 100 point against them, (96.4 average allowed.)

The Raptors are averaging 103.4 PPG in their five home games since Lowry’s injury and allowing an average of 101.8 PPG. In Toronto’s post All-Star games they are 1-5-1 to the under in their last seven contests. They’ve exceeded 100 points only twice in their last 10 contests. Toronto is also 07-24 to the under the past three seasons when at home and off an upset road dog win, they won at Detroit getting +3, (87-75.)

Coaching S-LOW-ly

· In the second half of the season Pacers coach McMillan/Team is 07-20 to the UNDER vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots per game.

· Raptors coach Casey/Team is 21-35 to the UNDER off an upset win as a road underdog.

Hardly Ever On a Sunday

For some reason the tendency for Sunday games is underwhelming when it comes to totals.

· Play Sunday home teams to stay under the total when the O/U is 200 to 209.5 points, after going under the total by 30 or more combined points in their last three games. This system is 22-53 = 71% to the UNDER since 1997 as well as 08-20 = 71.4% to the under during the past five seasons. The average combined score in this system is 197.7 points per game.

· After staying under the total by 42 or more points in their last five games, (applies to Indiana,) play all teams winning between 51% to 60% of their games to stay under the total when playing a winning team. This system is 21-44 = 68% to the under.

Every Edge in Review

· My last selection on Rhode Island was a winner and I’m 9-11 ATS with my wagered on selections.

NBA Pick

When I made my wager and sent it to, I am on Indiana/Toronto to stay under the total of 201.5 points. The line has moved since then and would say opinion only if you don’t 201.5.