Pinnacle Odds: Kansas State -2 vs Wake Forest +2 Total 148.5
by Greg Dempson
The University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio will bear witness one of these two teams advancing to the “Big Dance” while the loser will head home when this game tips at 9:10 ET tonight. Kansas State has been installed as 2 point favorites as of this posting.
The winner will advance and play #6 seed, the Cincinnati Bearcats. When reviewing the edge team has vs. one another, Kansas State most certainly has the better defense of the two, but when it comes to scoring, rebounding, free throw shooting, field goal percentage, bench strength and turnovers, the edge goes to the Demon Deacons. This will mark Wake Forest’s first tourney appearance since the 2009-2010 season. Wake Forest has three players averaging 10 or PPG and when away from home they averaged 80.6 PPG while allowing 81.8. They have fared marginally better on defense in their last five games holding opponents to an average of 80.2 PPG while increasing their offensive output to 84.4 PPG.
The Wildcats are back into the tournament after a two year hiatus largely on the strength of their wins vs. Baylor twice and West Virginia. This marks their third appearance in five seasons under coach Bruce Weber. The five starters of Kansas State average between 9.4 up to 12.5 PPG but, as mentioned, defense is the key to them moving onward to Sacramento. They are allowing an average of 68.8 away from home this season but in their last five contests they have lowered their PPG down to an average of 63.6 points per game.
Kansas State is averaging 69.8 PPG away from home for the season but, in their most recent five contests that scoring has dipped to an average of 61.4 points per game. For the Wildcats to have success they will have to limit the ability of John Collins, as he is averaging (18.9 PPG,) an that ranks third in the ACC an he’s been held below 10 points in only two games this season. Kansas State point guard Kamau Stokes led the BIG-12 in turnovers this season at 94 as well as two or more in their last 12 games.
The US “Stats” Department
· Wake Forest is 11-03 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or more in the last two seasons.
· From game 16 out Kansas State is 02-10 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots per game, (the last two seasons.)
· The Demon Deacons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. the BIG-12.
· Kansas State is 1-8 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.
· Wake Forest is 12-03 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses.
· The Wildcats were 6-6-1 ATS vs. teams that made the tournament while the Demon Deacons were slightly better at 7-6 ATS.
Coach’s Corner
· Wildcats Coach Weber/Team is 76-103 ATS and -37.30-units after allowing 25 or less points in the first half in their last game.
· From game 16 out, Demon Deacons coach Manning/Team is 40-22 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.
Keeping it in Neutral
· After going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, play on all Neutral court teams, (applies to Wake Forest.) This system is 36-13 = 73.5% ATS the past five seasons.
Every Edge in Review
· I am sitting at 8-10 ATS with my wagered on games here at Every Edge.