NCAA Tourney Pick – Oregon Ducks vs Kansas Jayhawks

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Pinnacle Odds: Oregon Ducks +6.5 vs. Kansas Jayhawks -6.5 Total 156.5

by Greg Dempson

Okay so the last PAC-12 team remaining and advancing to the Elite 8 is the Oregon Ducks as the Bruins fell to Kentucky last night while the Musketeers previously upset the Wildcats while USC was defeated earlier in the tournament. Both the Ducks as well as the Musketeers are substantial underdogs tonight, Oregon now at +7, while Xavier is +8 or +8.5.

Kansas Jayhawks look unstoppable based on their thrashing of Purdue. Oregon has survived even though they’ve lost Chris Boucher. My focus tonight is on this Ducks/Jayhawks game and the total which is currently 157/156.5 as I submit this article to Every Edge Sam. My initial take was a small wager on the over but after delving through all the data, I now believe the under has possibilities. Oregon and Kansas each faced four common opponents, Oregon averaged 69.0 PPG while allowing an average of 63.5 PPG with two games sailing over the number and two staying under. Kansas was 1-3 UNDER vs. common opponents averaging 75 PPG while allowing 65 PPG.

When looking at the offensive output of the Jayhawks in their tournament games, they’ve topped 90 or more in all three of them, so based on their recent scoring, it is hard to make a statement for the under in this contest as all three of their contests have sailed well over the number. As for the Ducks, in their three games they’ve gone over at a 2-1 clip. So, why is there no early action on the over?

Neutralizing the Under

· The Ducks are 04-18 to the under in neutral games when the O/U is between 150 to 159.5 points with an average combine score of 146 points as well as 02-11 to the under at neutral sites under head coach Altman.

· The Kansas Jayhawks are 11-26 to the UNDER after a game where they covered ATS the past two seasons with an average combine score of 146.5 points.

· Oregon is 02-10 to the UNDER in road games after playing back-to-back non conference games the past two seasons.

· Kansas is 06-19 to the UNDER in road games after two straight games when committing 11 or less turnovers.

· From game 16 out Ducks coach Altman/Team is 09-25 to the UNDER vs. good offensive teams that average 77+ points per game.

· Jayhawks coach Self/Team is 23-43 to the UNDER an +17.70-units in road games after a combined score of 155 points.

Every Edge in Review

· My previous selection on South Carolina was a winner and I am now 12-13 ATS with my NBA and College basketball selections.

Tourney Pick 

For this match-up I have an opinion on the Ducks/Jayhawks staying under the total of 157 or 156.5.