NFL Betting Preview: Miami Dolphins

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Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill

Adam Gase takes his offensive talents to South Florida this season, hoping to revitalize Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill’s career after things went south in 2015

By Pick Sixty Sports

Remember the Dolphins’ 11-win campaign of 2008, when they won the division and played host to their first playoff game since realignment? We do, and so do the Ravens, who beat Miami 27-9 in that contest as a 3.5-point road fave. But the memory is fading for a fan base that has seen their club average just seven wins per season ever since (49-63 SU overall) and are once again being picked by oddsmakers to finish below .500.


Win-Loss: 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS

Over/Under: 7-9 O/U

Noteworthy: The Dolphins open with back-to-back road games at Seattle and New England before hosting Cleveland in Week 3.


Odds to Win Super Bowl: 66 to 1

Odds to Win Conference: +3300

Odds to Win Division: +800

Season Win Total Odds: 7 Over (-105) Under (-125)

It feels like a rebuild in South Florida, with HC Adam Gase coming over to breathe new life into an offense that averaged just 19 points in 2015, but Ryan Tannehill has more than enough weapons to instantly make this unit competitive.

The bigger concern is on defense, where Vance Joseph (former Bengals DB coach) takes over to try and solve a secondary that gave up three or more passing touchdowns six times last season (1-5 SU/ATS).

Four of those five games helped account for Miami’s total of seven losses by double-digits and in the past 30 seasons, only 40-percent of NFL teams with five-plus blowout losses the previous year were able to record a .500 or better straight-up record the following season (123 of 311).

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Gase (38) will be the league’s youngest head coach and his first test is against the NFL’s stingiest defense the past two seasons (Seahawks: 16.6 PPGA). Early odds favor Seattle -7.5 and the total is 44. Teams that lose five or more games by double-digits one year and then open on the road as TD-plus dogs are a good bet to play over. There is little evidence these teams will be able to travel into an amped up environment and suddenly put the brakes on against big plays. Circle this game for a potential “Over” play in Week 1.

Pick Sixty Sports is an online information site for handicappers featuring football content and free picks throughout the season.