By Greg Dempson
Buffalo Bills at New England 1st Half Play
The Buffalo Bills snapped a 12-game losing streak at Gillette Stadium on December 28 of last year by defeating the Patriots 17–09 for their first win at New England in more than 20 years. In that game New England had already clinched the number 1 seed in the AFC and rested Gronkowski and Edelman with Brady playing in the first half only. That loss ended New England’s 35 game winning streak vs. AFC foes.
Edelman, who is New England’s number one receiver, is out for this game and an extended period of time so Danny Amendola as well as Gronkowski will see more passes thrown their way and Aaron Dobson will most likely be in the mix. In their week 2 meeting at Ralph Wilson Stadium, Dobson caught 7 passes for 87 yards.
In week 1 of this season the Bills closed as a 2 point home dog and won outright vs. the Colts. The following week they hosted the Patriots and the opening line favored New England by 1.5 or 2 points but as the week progressed the Bills were installed as a 1 point favorite at kick-off. In that 40–32 Patriots win at Buffalo the Bills made a huge comeback but fell short, after trailing 37–13. New England had 506 yards on offense, (451 via the pass.) The Bills had a combined offense of 349 yards.
View From the 50 Yard Line
· Dismissing that home game vs. the Bills on December 28 of last year, when New England had the #1 seed wrapped up, the Patriots have played well vs. the Bills in the first half, winning the first half by scores of 24–13, 13–07 and 16–03 in their last three meetings.
· New England is off an upset win as an underdog, (they were +1 in week 2 at Buffalo.) When the road team is playing with revenge vs. an opponent that scored 35 or more points, by playing against the road team and on the home team in the first half we are 33–07 = 82.5% ATS since 1983 and 5–1 = 87.5% in the past five seasons.
· Shop for the best line if you’re going to back New England in the first half as –4 is a “live” number vs. –4.5 as not many games land on exactly 5 points in the first half, so the next key number is 6, so I recommend that you lay 4 points. If the score is 14–10 you’ll be glad you did!
My NFL Game of the Week is on the New England Patriots at –4 in the first half.
For additional winning information and winning systems visit www.gregdempson.com.