NFL Pick – Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons

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By Greg Dempson

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons, (O/U 46.5 at 1:00 ET)

Former defensive head coach and first year Falcon’s coach, Dan Quinn has Atlanta off to an impressive 3–0 start. The teams’ never say die attitude has served them well through the first 3 weeks as they have trailed in the fourth quarter in every game. Last week they defeated a Cowboys team without Romo and Bryant. In week 2 the Giants imploded yet again and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory! In week 1 they took it to the Eagles at home on Monday night, an Eagles team that is out of sync averaging a meager 19.3 PPG on offense.

In 2014 the Falcons were ranked #32 in defending the pass and it isn’t much better this season as they are #29 plus they are ranked in the bottom six in overall yards allowed. What team takes the least amount of time in getting their plays off? No, it’s not the Eagles, the correct answer is the Texans at 21.55 seconds.

Houston ranks in the top 12 in both offensive yards gained as well as allowing the fewest yards. The Falcons gave up 295 yards and 4 touchdowns in the first half before limiting Dallas to 52 yards and no points in the second half. Houston brings a better offense into this game compared to what Dallas offered last week.

Atlanta is first in the conference in yards gained per game at 411.7 so I project a higher scoring game.

View From the 50 Yard Line

– The Falcons are #2 in special teams play after three weeks while Houston is ranked at #11. Atlanta is 37–20 to the over vs. poor punt coverage teams that allow 12 or more yards per return.

– In the first month of the season the Texans are 18–07 to the over in road games.

– Atlanta is 6–0 to the over when favored by -3.5 to -9.5.

– Houston is 9–1 to the over when dog of +8.5 or less and an over/under that’s greater than 45 points.

– The Falcons are 4–0 to the over the past four seasons in week 4.

– The Texans  are 21–07 to the over after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last game.

– When the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, play mistake free teams committing 0.75 or less turnovers per game over the total, (applies to Atlanta,), after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This system is 37–12 = 75.5% to the over the past 10 seasons.

– Play slow starting offensive teams who are averaging 7 or less PPG in the first half, (Texans,) to sail over the total after allowing 14 points or less last game. This system is 51–22 = 70% to the over the past 10 seasons.

NFL Pick

My EveryEdge NFL Game of the Week is for Houston and Atlanta to sail over 46.5 points.

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