By Greg Dempson
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles -6
My Every Edge NFL record is 8 – 4 ATS, onto this week’s selection. The Philadelphia Eagles have turned a 1–3 start into a .500 record thanks to winning three out of their last four games. At 4–4 in the weak AFC–East division the are certainly in the hunt for a post season berth.
As for the Dolphins, they won in week 1 at Washington and then disaster struck which eventually led to the firing of their head coach after their debacle in London, England. Miami’s 3–5 and with the Patriots undefeated their post season aspirations hinge on making it to the Wild Card round. The Dolphins are 2–2 under interim head coach Dan Campbell. Life away from home hasn’t been great as Miami has dropped the first two of their three consecutive road games and they might be catching Philadelphia at the wrong time.
Eagles running backs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews have combined for 620 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns in their last four games and the team has increased their YPC up 5.6. Miami has been poor vs. the run and last week the gave up 266 yards on the ground at Buffalo while losing 33–17. The Dolphins are allowing an average of 142.1 rushing yards per game, second only to the Browns who allow 147.6 YPG. The Eagles have averaged 28.1 rushing attempts per game and 121.6 yards on the ground while the Dolphins have seen opponents run the ball a league-high 31.5 times per game. Last week Miami became the first team to allow two 100 yard rushers as well as a 150 yard receiver in the same game.
View From the 50 Yard Line
· In the second half of the season the Dolphins are 16–31 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams who allow 7.5 or less yards per return.
· In the second half of the season Philadelphia is 31–16 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.
· Miami is 14–31 ATS after a two game road trip.
· The Eagles are 8–1 ATS in the month of November the past three seasons.
· The Dolphins are is 0–7 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game.
· After allowing 400 or more total yards in their last game, play on home teams in a game involving two teams that are solid on offense, averaging between 335 to 370 YPG after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This system is 46–22 = 68% ATS since 1983. When we tighten the system and look at home favorites of –7 or less, (the Eagles are favored by 6 as of this posting,) the system improves to 33–11–02 = 75% ATS since 1988.
My NFL Game of the Week is on the Philadelphia Eagles –6 points.
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