NFL Pick – Pittsburgh at Seattle

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By Greg Dempson

Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks

My Every Edge NFL record is 9–5 ATS this season, onto Sunday’s selection. Running back Marshawn Lynch will miss a second straight game and his replacement did an admirable job last week as undrafted Central Michigan rookie Thomas Rawls rushed for 209 yards on 30 carries as Seattle crushed the 49ers (29–13.)

Running the ball vs. the Steelers defense might not be as easy for Rawls as I note the Steelers held Cleveland to a season low Pittsburgh’s defense figures to be a more difficult test. The 49ers surrender an average of 4.28 yards per carry, while the 6–4 Steelers have allowed an average of 3.84 YPC. In their game vs. the Browns before their bye week they allowed only 15 yards on 14 carries in their 30–09 win.

Seattle has been god vs. the sad sack teams of the league but when they have faced teams with a winning record, such is not the case as the Seahawks are 0–4 straight up losing to the likes of, Green Bay, (27–17,) Cincinnati, (27–24,) and losing at home twice, (27–23,) vs. Carolina as well as (39–32) vs. divisional rival Arizona.

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NOTE: Seahawks have allowed 27 points in their three loses to teams above .500 as well as 39 vs. division foe Arizona. I am considering playing the Steelers team total over the number.

Russell Wilson has been sacked 35 times this season and has only two games where he has thrown for multiple touchdowns.
The Steelers have certainly fared better when Ben Roethlisberger is under center and he will start again after coming in off the bench when Landry Jones went down two weeks ago when they hosted the Browns. Pittsburgh is 4–2 straight up this season when Ben is under center and I note that Roethlisberger is 3–0 straight up vs. the Seahawks in his career.

The Steelers average 33 PPG when Ben has played a complete game and Antonio Brown has caught 27 passes for 423 yards with two touchdowns in his last two games. Ben’s second “go to” receiver is Martavis Bryant, who missed the first five games due of suspension and injury, had a career-high 178 yards receiving while scoring his fifth touchdown in their last game.

View From the 50 Yard Line

· Seattle is 3–8–1 ATS in their last 12 games.

· Pittsburgh is 53–23 ATS vs. good passing teams that are averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt.

· The Seahawks are 45–66 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better.

· The Steelers are 56–34 ATS versus good offensive teams who are averaging 5.65 or more yards per play.

· Seattle is 3–7 ATS in their third of three consecutive home games.

· Ben Roethlisberger is 20–07 ATS as a dog versus foes off a win in his NFL career, including 5-1 straight up and ATS vs. NFC opponents.


My Every Edge NFL Game of the Week is on the Pittsburgh Steelers at +3.5 points.

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