NFL Playoff Pick – Green Bay at Atlanta

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By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Green Bay +5 at Atlanta Falcons -5 Total 60 

Can the books post a total high enough on this game, after getting taken out to the woodshed last weekend with sides and totals, (the exception being the under in the Steelers/Chiefs game,) they are probably sweating the over on this game.

It is after all the playoffs and many that hardly ever wager on a game will do so at this juncture of the season, especially when the Super Bowl is being played. This total of 60, 60.5 or 61 is not the highest total ever posted, I recall an O/U 62 back in the days of the “Greatest Show on Turn!” I’m referring to the St. Louis Rams as they had an O/U of 62, (closed at 61.5,) for a game vs. the 49ers on October the 20th in the 2000 season. The final score was 34–24 for the Rams.

Is This Total Too High?

  • So, how the books arrived at this total of 60 on the low end and 61 on the high end? First of all consider their previous total earlier this season was 58 and that Packers/Falcons game played over the total of 51 points, (33–32.)
  • Green Bay averaged 28.0 PPG for the entire season and have now scored 30 or more in six consecutive games. The Packers allowed an average of 28.6 PPG when on the road this season. That average is 29.3.
  • Atlanta scored an average of 33.9 in all games but slightly higher at 35.1 at home while allowing 26.9. That home average is 31.
  • So when you factor in the 29 plus the 31 you come up with an average total that is 60 and close to bang on to what the totals are offered at the various books.
  • The first half total in this game is over 31 at –105 and under 31 at –115. That is a lot of points for a conference finals playoff contest. For the over to cash you need red zone touchdowns, not turnovers or field goals, 31 is indeed a large number to climb over.
  • In their first meeting, (October 30th,) the first half combined score was 43 points, well over the first half total.
  • When the played at Lambeau Field in 2014 the O/U was 54.5 points and that game sailed over the full game total of 54.5 as well as the first half as the half-time score was a combined 38 points.

Over or Under in the First Half?

  • In the second half of the season, play any team that outgains their opponent between 40 to 100 yards per game, (applies to Atlanta,) to stay under the first half total, when playing against an average team that’s + or –40 yards per game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This system is 10–32 = 76% to the under in the first half the past five seasons.

NFL Playoff Pick 

A total of 31 is tough for an over better as 32 is a dead number and 33 isn’t common for a first half either. Having said that, it is tough for me to put the brakes on two freight trains running downhill at full throttle.

I have a very small opinion on under 31 in the first half and I didn’t back that opinion with a beers or pizza wager!


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