By Greg Dempson
Pinnacle Odds: Houston Texans +15 at New England Patriots -15 Total 44
It’s my belief that Bill Belichick is more concerned in just winning this game rather than running up the score, if they get a double-digit lead the Patriots will run the ball to shorten the game. When New England is a home favorite, with Belichick as their head coach, they are 75–58 ATS with the average score being New England 27.6, opponents 17.1, which oddly enough is almost bang on to what the books have posted the over/under at. In those 133 games the average margin of victory has been 12.5 points per game. New England is laying big wood in this game and in this spot with Belichick and Brady in post season play the Patriots are 0–8 ATS.
Houston is dealing with key injuries to Brian Cushing, Quintin Demps and Jadeveon Clowney but I expect them to play. The Texans finished with the number one defense while New England allowed the fewest points this season.
Earlier this season the Patriots defeated the Texans, (without Brady under center,) 27–00, so it could happen again but I have three systems that say there will not be an ATS repeat and the game will stay under the total.
Trifecta Systems
- When the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and a team is revenging a blowout by 21 or more points, play the revenge game under. This system is 19–46 = 71% to the under the past five seasons.
- Play against favorites that average 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 or less points in two straight games. This system is 33–09 ATS the past 10 seasons as well as 13–02 = 87% ATS the previous five seasons.
- From game nine out, play on underdogs or pick that average between 5.3 to 5.9 passing yards per attempt when playing against an average passing defense that allows 5.9 to 6.7 passing yards per attempt, after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt in their last game. This system is 40–15 = 73% ATS since 1983.
NFL Playoff Pick
All four Wild Card opinions won last week, let’s hope the streak continues.
For additional winning systems, selections, angles and Tweets, visit www.gregdempson.com.