NFL Playoff Pick – Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

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Tom Brady new england

by Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers +6 at New England Patriots -6 Total 50.5

Pittsburgh played last Sunday night at Arrowhead Stadium while the Patriots played a home game on Saturday, I give an edge to the host team who is favored by 3 points at –120 in the first half. Pittsburgh is off a hard fought 6 field goal game vs. a bend but don’t break Chiefs defense while New England advanced with a somewhat lethargic win vs. the Texans.

Roethlisberger vs. Brady

  • Big Ben is definitely dialed in at home but it is a different story when he’s on the road, 9 touchdown passes vs. 9 interceptions. Roethlisberger has also thrown 9 picks in his last six contests.
  • As for Brady in his 12 regular season games he tossed 28 touchdowns vs. 2 interceptions.
  • Roethlisberger is 0–2 at New England as well as 3–6 overall while Brady is 7–2 overall in his nine meetings vs. the Steelers.

The First Half

  • Pittsburgh averages 10.6 first half points while allowing 9.6 in the first half when on the road. In their two turf games they were outscored by 2.0 first half points.
  • New England outscored teams in the first half, (at home,) by an average score of 15.0 vs. 6.4. In their most recent three contests they have averaged 21.3 first half points while limiting the Texans, Dolphins and Jets to an average of 6.7 first half points.

All Systems Go

  • From game nine out, play against road teams in the first half that average between 6.7 to 7.3 passing yards per attempt when playing against an average passing defense  that allows between 5.9 to 6.7 passing yards per attempt after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in their last game. This system is 13–04 = 76.47% ATS the past five seasons as well as 28–09 = 75.70% ATS the past decade.
  • After allowing 17 or less points in three consecutive games, play on first half favorites of 2 to 6 points when playing against an opponent that’s off a win by 6 points or less points. This system is 10–03 = 77% ATS the past decade as well as 53–20 = 73% ATS since 1983.
  • After covering the spread in four or five or their last six games, play against road underdogs in the first half. By backing the Patriots in this system you are 20–07 = 74% ATS this season.


My Every Edge Conference Finals selection, (and wager,) is on the Patriots –3 at –120 in the first half.


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