NFL Week 11 Odds & Trends

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By Everyedge

NFL WEEK 11 Odds

The NFL Week 11 odds are here and Monday Night Football is a neutral site game in Mexico City with the Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans…I’m not saying anything.

Week 11 has 14 games and there are only 2 home dogs: Browns +9 and 49ers +13.5. Chip Kelly must be shaking his head as the Patriots are going to be an ornery bunch after their loss to Seattle.

No respect for the Chiefs? They are hosting the Bucs and are not even a double digit favorite over this sap of a club. The highest total for the week – 52.5 on the Colts and Titans game.


Week 11 Early Odds

Favorite Line Underdog Total
At Carolina -3.5 New Orleans 51.5
At Indianapolis -3 Tennessee 52.5
At Detroit -6.5 Jacksonville 47
At Kansas City -7.5 Tampa Bay 44.5
At NY Giants -6 Chicago 47.5
At Minnesota  PK Arizona 41
At Cincinnati -4 Buffalo 46.5
At Dallas -7 Baltimore 45
Pittsburgh -9 At Cleveland 49
At Los Angeles -1 Miami 40.5
New England -13.5 At San Francisco 51.5
At Seattle -6 Philadelphia 46
At Washington -2.5 Green Bay 50.5
Oakland -5.5 Houston 46

Here is a look at some of early Week 11 NFL odds with trends that are helping shape the line.


Measuring which team produced the biggest letdown game of any given week can be done in  a variety of ways. Blown leads and big shortfalls on your projected team total are two indicators and the Carolina Panthers hit the nail in both categories with their 20-17 loss to Kansas City.

This week on Thursday Night Football the Panthers (-4 and O/U 51) are laying an even bigger number than they did in Week 10 and while they are playing a lesser defense, the Saints are also much more capable of scoring than KC.

Home faves off a loss where they were leading by double-digits at the half are 54-11 SU and 35-26-4 ATS (57-percent). In divisional games the records improve to 24-2 SU and 14-9-3 ATS and the “Under” is riding a 7-game winning streak but this is the highest total of all 26 games in the profile. It could mean good value but it could also be a sign the book is expecting big things.

Cleveland is another letdown squad from Week 10, falling 10 or 11 points short of their team total in a 28-7 loss to Baltimore. This week the Browns host Pittsburgh (-8.5 and O/U 49) and the record for winless home teams at this point in the season off a game where they scored single digits is 10-5 ATS with 8 overs, 4 unders and a push. Dogs of +6 points or more in this profile are 5-0 SU/ATS with 3 overs and 2 pushes.

If you think Cleveland has no shot, jog your memory back to Week 12, 2014, Chiefs at Raiders. Oakland was 0-10 SU and fetching +7 points against a 7-3 Chiefs team. Final score: Raiders 24 and KC 20.

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