Pinnacle Odds: Pittsburgh Penguins -139 at Ottawa Senators +126 Total 5.5
by Greg Dempson
Yesterday Ottawa Senators head coach Guy Boucher said the team would revert back to what got them to the Eastern Conference Finals, the (1-3-1) or trap style of play. The Penguins broke through and scored 5 goals within 13 feet of Ottawa’s net and won “going away,” (7-0.) He went on to say the team opened up early in the Game 5 loss, and that’s what got them in trouble. Ottawa will go back to their number one goalie Craig Anderson, who was pulled in Game 5 after giving up four goals on 14 shots. Coach Boucher also mentioned that defenseman Erik Karlsson and center Derick Brassard would be good to go.
Pittsburgh will start goalie Matt Murray who saw action in game 4. Since then Murray has stopped 68 out of 71 shots, with a (95.8) save percentage. The two teams are 2-2-1 to the total with three of the five games having 5 o less combined goals. One situation about playing an under in a post season elimination game is the empty net, a factor that came into play last night when Anaheim’s head coach Carlyle pulled his goalie with almost three minutes remaining in the game, empty net goals will indeed turn an under into an over in a heartbeat. So, while I do believe therre is value on the under tonight, caution is urged.
Under Angles
· The Senators are 01-11 to the under at home this season when off a game whereby they allowed 5 or more goals.
· The Penguins are 12-26 to the under in the second half of the season vs. horrible power play killing opponents that allow their opposition to score on 19% or more of their opportunities.
· Ottawa is 06-18 to the under this season when revenging a road loss.
An Under System
· After scoring 2 goals or less in two straight games, play all teams under the total, (applies to Ottawa,) when playing against an opponent that scored 6 or more goals in their previous game. This system is 35-72 = 67% to the under the past five seasons.
Money Line System
· After allowing 2 goals or less in back-to-back games play against road teams vs. the money line when playing against an opponent that’s off a blowout loss by 5 or more goals in their last game. This system is 84-51 = 62% since 1997.