Los Angeles was no match for the Coyotes Tuesday and tonight the Kings must lace `em up for the third time in four days in a divisional tilt vs. the San Jose Sharks
San Jose posted a 4-2 record vs. the Kings during the 2011-12 regular season
With just two points separating third from 10th place in the hotly contested Western Conference standings, the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks know how much each game means. Tonight these two lock horns at the HP Pavilion for the first time this year with each club trying to bounce back from a loss.
It’s been tale of two seasons for each of these clubs and each has run an extended cycle of ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ hockey in the turbulent first half of the campaign. Sports betting shops opened the odds for this game at Sharks -120 but judging by early action it appears the public money is supporting the Kings. Pinnacle Sports currently offers San Jose at -110 with a total of 5 Under (-101).
THE 3-IN-4 SPOT
The Kings took care of Calgary 3-1 on Monday night before losing the Coyotes 5-2 on Tuesday. This is LA’s third game in four days and while the frequency of scheduling quirks is up this year, the results are maintaining similar patterns to those from the past five seasons.
– The average number of 3-in-4 situations from the past five seasons was just less than 500 per year and already this year we have seen 188 (Jan. 22nd to Mar. 12).
Teams faced with a 3-in-4 stumbled a bit early but they didn’t have much trouble in February (.500 SU). Now we are starting to see some of these teams wear down and road teams in the first 12 days of March are just 8-22 SU and 17-10-3 O/U.
Here’s the month by month breakdown for NHL teams in a 3-in-4 this season:
Jan. Home: 20 games, 11-9 SU and 6-13-1 O/U
Jan. Away: 23 games, 6-17 SU and 5-16-2 O/U
Feb. Home: 42 games, 19-23 SU and 19-20-3 O/U
Feb. Away: 44 games, 24-20 SU and 18-24-2 O/U
Mar. Home: 29 games, 13-16 SU and 12-13-4 O/U
Mar. Away: 30 games, 8-22 SU and 17-10-3 O/U
SU: Straight-up
O/U: Over/Under
ON THE HORIZON
Between now and Sunday there are six games where the road team will be playing for the third time in four days and it looks like there could be some good value on the home side in at least four or five matchups.
March 14, 2013: Kings at Sharks
March 15, 2013: Predators at Flames
March 16, 2013: Red Wings at Canucks
March 17, 2013: Bruins at Penguins
March 17, 2013: Jets at Senators
March 17, 2013: Predators at Oilers
Looking back to 2009, it seems like a better play for the home team when our tired road squad is coming off a win in game 2 of the set. The road teams who lost in game 2 are only 3-10 this year but they are 50-56 SU the past five years inclusive. Teams off a win in game 2 are 39-58.
The only double combination for games 1-2 that showed a nice profit (in March) is when the road team won and then lost. Those teams are riding a 1-12 SU streak and this profile and its “live” tonight when the Kings visit the Sharks.
NHL PICKS
Starting goaltenders for tonight were not confirmed as of12 pmET but of the two No. 1’s, San Jose goalie Antti Niemi has the edge. Niemi is 3-1 in five home starts vs. the Kings (regular season) with a 2.11 goals against average (GAA) while Kings’ goalie Jonathan Quick carries with him a 0-1-2 record in this building with a 2.56 GAA.
Since 2006, road teams in the 3-in-4 spot have a losing record in every calendar month except for Jan. (45-38) and April (9-8). The road team’s cumulative winning percentage when coming off a road loss in game 2 of the 3-game set is around 41-percent (all months; almost 400 plays) and as the Sharks begin a stretch of five divisional games out of seven, we look for them to establish a strong presence on home ice.
Take the Sharks (-110)
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