The Edmonton Oilers are in California this week for a two-game set starting with the Anaheim Ducks
Ducks goalie Jonas Hiller is 8-2 in 10 starts vs. the Oilers, posting a 1.88 goals against average
Edmonton had little success in its past three home games (0-3) and sits 17 points back of San Jose for the eighth playoff spot in the West. The Sharks are on-deck for Tom Renney’s crew but first they must get past a Ducks team who come into this contest just seven back of San Jose in 12th place.
Anaheim is 2-3 since returning from its eight-game eastern mega tour and both wins were on home ice. The NHL odds favor the Ducks -170 with a total of 5.5 Under (-120).
“Under” bettors have cashed in huge with the Ducks during the past few weeks, winning 10-straight games before Kings forward Anze Kopitar ended the streak with a last minute empty net goal in Saturday’s 4-2 Los Angeles win.
The Ducks have played just 2 overs in their past 16 games and six consecutive games at Honda Center have stayed low. Anaheim is 4-1-1 during that stretch, outscoring opponents 14-12 for an overall average of 4.33 goals per game.
With just two goals or less in four of its past five, Edmonton’s slumping offense has not threatened many Team Total props but they’ve certainly shown more spark on the road. In visits to Winnipeg, Calgary and Ottawa the Oilers scored five, six and four goals respectively, going 3-0.
One thing to keep in mind is that those three wins span back to Feb. 11. Edmonton was home for seven of its past nine (1-5-1).
BETWEEN THE LINES
The top eight teams in the West for goals allowed give up 2.41 per game and based on overall season results, Anaheim sits 12th with a 2.73 average. That statistic is skewed by an atrocious start and while the Ducks may be unable to recover by season’s end, it’s important when sports betting to keep things in perspective.
The Ducks are 10-2-1 in their past 13 home games, just two of the wins coming in OT
In the past 10 games, Anaheim ranks seventh in the league at 2.20 goals per game (GPG) allowed and that’s the exact number they allowed through 15 games in February (2.20) when they were ninth best in the league.
Going back to January, Anaheim gave up just 1.75 goals per contest which was third overall behind St. Louis (1.45) and Los Angeles (1.64), and compare that with December, when Anaheim tied with Tampa Bay (3.54 GPG) for most goals allowed, we see a huge variance.
NUMBERS GAME
The reason the above stat stands out is that since Anaheim’s 5-0 win over Edmonton Jan. 13, the Oilers have played 10 games against top ranked Western defenses and results were not good (3-6-1).
Edmonton beat the Red Wings 5-4 in a shootout Feb. 4 and the other two wins were of the 2-1 variety (Kings, Sharks). That’s an average of 3.00 GPG.
– In the other seven games, Edmonton scored a grand total of 10 goals (1.43 GPG)
The 10-game average for Edmonton against strong defensive teams is 1.90 GPG, 27-percent less than the Oilers 2.61 GPG average against the league.
NHL PICKS
Edmonton’s top ranked power play has not been getting chances and the Ducks will have to be careful. Anaheim tallied 89 minutes in their past three games and ranks fifth in the league for most penalty minutes per game (12.5). A big part of that stat is made up by coincidental majors, where the Ducks rank sixth, but even without fighting they are 19th.
With so little wiggle room left in the hunt for a playoff spot, look for the Ducks to bring their A-game to the rink and tuck this one away in 60 minutes.
Pick: Take the Ducks -.5 goals in regulation (even)
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