Saturday, August 25th – Tonight’s Texans vs. Saints meeting highlights the Saturday NFL Week 3 pre-season card. The game kicks off a little after 8:00 p.m. ET in New Orleans.
Pinnacle Sports Odds: The line (from Pinnacle Sports) has remained relatively steady since the opening number, with the Saints currently sitting as a 3-point favorite. The Total has seen some movement, crossing over a key number as the money flows in on the Over. It opened at 43.5, but the action has pushed that number to 44.5 (and I’m even seeing a couple of 45s out there). I spoke with a couple of sportsbooks earlier today and both reported a high percentage of their Total volume was, as you’d expect by looking at the line movement, on the “Over”. One book had 73% on the Over, while the other reported a whopping 79% of the money tilted to the high side.
We had a look at this game and while we do in fact lean to the Under 44.5, as we see some value wit that number, that isn’t the play we’re posting. We like the Houston Texans as a 3-point road dog in this preseason tilt.
With the starting units playing at least the entire first half, we’re going to see some “real” football for a couple of quarters. It does look like the Houston starters will take the field again to begin the third quarter and play at least one series, while the Saints starters are expected to be done at the half.
The Texans starting defense has been solid thus far in the preseason, but tonight is their toughest challenge. While they’re going to give up some points, we think they rise to the challenge and comport themselves well in this matchup.
On the other side of the ball, we like the Texans offense to establish the ground game early vs. a saint run D that is going to have problems this season (and have shown that so far this year), which will allow them to put long drives together that result in points.
When the starters do finish up, and we are expecting the game to be very close or for the Texans to have a bit of a lead, which give the nod to the visitor the rest of the way with 2nd and 3rd stringers playing.
NFL Picks: We like the Houston Texans at +3 to cover the spread in tonight’s NFL Week 3 preseason matchup.
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