By Greg Dempson
We begin the post All–Star break with a record of 22–9–1 with my Every Edge baseball selections.
In this 7:05 ET divisional match-up the Red Sox send leftie Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound to duel with rightie Michael Pineda. Rodriguez has been brutal in his last three starts with an ERA of 11.77, WHIP of 2.154. He hasn’t fared well on the road this season either with an ERA of 10.12, WHIP of 2.099 but in somewhat of an oddity Rodriguez/Team are 2–1 in those 3 games.
The Yankees counter with Michael Pineda who has a home ERA of 5.13, WHIP of 1.291. Pineda/Team are 5–3 in his 8 home starts. Pineda’s ERA in his last three starts is 3.50, WHIP 0.899. Factor in home field and the apparent disparity between the two pitchers, and thus, the Yankees are favored by –143 in this contest as of 4:30 ET Thursday afternoon when I submitted this article to Everyedge.com
From the Pitcher’s Mound
· This season the Yankees are -13.80-units against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game this season while Pineda/Team are -13.40-units against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game the last two seasons.
· Rodriguez is 3–1 when starting against the Yankees with an ERA of 2.22 and a WHIP of 1.315. He had three starts vs. the Yankees last season, including two contests at Yankees Stadium and he pitched a combined 13 innings allowing 3 earned runs, 13 hits and one homer.
· Pineda/Team is 5–4 vs. the Red Sox with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.188 with one start this season and one in 2015 pitching a combined 12 innings allowing 9 earned runs including 3 homers.
· The Red Sox are 10–02 and +10.80-units against the money line in road games with a rested bullpen that threw 2 innings or less in each of the last two games the last two seasons.
· The Yankees average 3.9 RPG vs. lefties this season and 3.1 RPG in division contests.
· Boston averages 5.8 RPG vs. righties, 5.6 runs in night games and 5.0 vs. division foes.
· Rodriguez has allowed 9 home runs in six starts but only 3 on the road in his 3 away contests and that sets up nicely for the following underdog scenario.
All Systems Go
· Play on road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher when starting a pitcher whose gives up 1 or more home runs per start and playing against an opponent with an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season. This system is 52–33 = 61% the past five seasons and +37.90-units.
Red Sox vs Yankees Pick
My Friday evening Every Edge offering is a selection on the Boston Red Sox at +133 on the money line.