It’s the New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks to kick off the Divisional round, with Seattle now a 10-point favorite.
The line opened at -8, creeping up throughout the week until jumping to 10 this morning. Once it hit 10, we felt there was enough value to play on the underdog Saints.
We like Drew Brees and the Saints getting 10-points today in Seattle.
Yes, the Saints are only a few weeks removed from being embarrassed on this very field (34-7) and New Orleans has been dismal away from home in the playoffs. They took a small step to correcting the awful road performances in January with a win last weekend and as far as I’m concerned, that 34-7 smackdown is a positive for New Orleans in this one.
I’ll take the 10 points with a Drew Brees/Sean Payton led team that can play defense. This is a quality team on both sides of the ball.
The Seattle defense are very, very good, but there are some matchup advantages the Saints can (and I suspect will) exploit. Starting with Jimmy Graham. Last time out LB KJ Wright was mainly responsible for matching up, with help at times from teammates. Wright is out with a broken foot. His replacement, Malcolm Smith will get at least some of the Graham assignment, which is a big edge for New Orleans.
However, the Seahawks will be sliding over help from safeties and corners, which should give Brees some very favorable single coverage looks, which I expect him to take advantage of.
Complimented by a running game that can be productive, at least enough to help the passing game, I see the Saints rolling out a balanced attack that is able to move the chains.
Last month in that loss, New Orleans got down early, blowing up their gameplan. That game got away from them right away and they never were able to get sorted.
That doesn’t happen today.
Add in the Seahawks recent form heading into the playoffs, which wasn’t inspiring and I see a road double digit underdog that can play heads up with the home team. The Seahawk offense is average and has been very average down the stretch. That lack of firepower is another key reason I like the Saints.
NFL Picks: I like the value now that the line has hit 10 and really feel the Saints can stay close and give the Seahawks a real run here, perhaps even leaving Seattle with a win.
Take the Saints +10
Join us in the Everyedge.com Sports Betting Forums for great handicapping and NFL discussion all day.