Week 4, Thursday Night Football Picks: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

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Preview, ATS betting stats and predictions for this week’s AFC North battle between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens


The NFL Referees Association and the league have reached a deal that will see real-live professionals calling tonight’s primetime game between the Browns and Ravens

The Cleveland Browns are in Baltimore Thursday night and with news of an agreement between the NFL and it’s locked out officials; online betting sites have already noticed an increase in wagering. The Ravens opened as a 12.5-point favorite but betting the dogs produced an 11-5 ATS mark in Week 3 and that’s helped draw attention to the road pup, trimming this line to -12 and 44.5.


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Baltimore got past the New England Patriots in a dramatic fourth quarter comeback Sunday whose controversial calls were only overshadowed by Monday’s debacle in Seattle. The Ravens are 21-1 SU in their past 22 home games and they score an average 27 points per game, posting 12 overs, 10 unders and a sub-par 10-11-1 ATS record.


Cleveland fell to 0-3 straight-up with a 24-14 home loss to the Buffalo Bills. It was not only the third-straight loss for the Browns but the third consecutive week where the margin of defeat increased from the previous game. Cleveland lost by a single point in Week 1 against Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles and fell seven points shy of the Bengals in the Battle of Ohio.


Need to Know: NFL teams off a double-digit loss are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS this season when facing an opponent who did not lose its previous game by 10 points or more


Since 2002, teams in this spot are 28-16 ATS (64-percent)from Week’s 1 through 4 when getting 7-plus points on the road and the under has also cashed at a 64-percent rate (15-27-2 O/U).


The average total in this exact situation is 41.4 points, nearly a field goal less than the current NFL odds offered by online sportsbooks. The only game of 2012 that was “live” was last week’s 27-24 (51 points) upset win by the Chiefs (+9) in New Orleans but even after that wild finish, final scores in the past 44 games still average just 39.4 points per game. More recently, the net result is 3 overs, 10 unders and a push since 2009.


Read NFL Early Picks – Week 4 for more on this contest and free picks for Miami vs. Arizona!


NFL Picks: Brandon Weeden has been struggling with pass attempts further than 10 yards downfield and on a short week against a tough division foe, it’s tough to picture him getting his team in position to win. Cleveland will lean on Trent Richardson but he’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and if the Browns fall behind, their run game sees a big fall-off. Baltimore has already put the win against New England behind them and their win streak vs. the division hit nine-straight (6-2-1 ATS) with the opening week win over Cinci. They are clearly a better team but rather than lay the points, we’ll suggest a play on the total. Take the Under


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