Football betting gets an early start this year when mock draft becomes reality at New York’s Radio City Music Hall – “Indy, you’re on the clock!”
Over/Under props for number of first round QBs selected sit at 3.5 but there is very little debate over who will go first when the selections begin Thursday in New York
Andrew Luck was told weeks ago he was going to be “The Man” for Indianapolis and whether it was Luck or Robert Griffin III left over, Washington drafting a QB with the second overall pick was a foregone conclusion when they moved up the board.
Those are good things. When sportsbooks post odds on obvious top selections the prices usually start at -800 and can occasionally hit quadruple-digits by Draft Day. But what’s not automatic is the total number of QBs who will go in Round 1 and whether or not Minnesota will hold onto the No. 3 spot or trade it to the highest bidder.
Which team will make the 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft?
Any other team +200
Minnesota allowed an average of 3.1 QB sacks last season, tied for fourth-most with Chicago and Seattle. Teams who allowed more include St. Louis, Arizona and Miami, who went a combined 16-32 straight-up, or a win percentage of .313. The Vikes were 3-13; they do not want to be in that club anymore.
But 3-to-1 odds are still too high for most bettors and even “Matt Kalil will go 3rd overall” is priced at -200, so where’s the value?
One online book offers a prop on “Total number of offensive or defensive players” taken in the first round and this could be spot for those looking to keep tonight’s draft interesting.
ROUND 1 OFFENSE
According to our draft board, offense will dominate five of the first six picks and we should see at least six taken in the top 10. The next 10 picks cuts in half to three so through 20 picks, we only have nine offensive players taken and NFL odds for total number in Round 1 is 15 Under (-130).
With three picks in the first 37, Cleveland is a bit of wild card and so is the Over/Under 3.5 for total number of QBs that will go in Round 1. Our play is on offense to make up at least 50-percent of the first round picks.
NFL Draft Props: Take the Over 15 at even money
WEEK 1 IMPACT
Early talk around the sports betting forums is that Luck makes the Colts substantially better, Cleveland will not benefit from so many early picks and the New Orleans Saints are in for a tough start. We compared Week 1 NFL odds in our first NFL betting piece of the off-season, 2012 NFL Picks, Early Odds for Week 1. The biggest changes are noted below and today’s draft could spark another shift.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 9
Washington at New Orleans
Opened: Saints -10.5 ………. Current: Saints -8.5
This shift through a key number (10) is as much attributed to the Saints’ turbulent off-season as it is towards hype that RG3 makes the Redskins a pro caliber team. Washington is 5-2 ATS the last seven times when getting more than eight points.
San Francisco at Green Bay
Opened: Packers -6 ………… Current: Packers -7
The Niners’ eight-straight losses at Lambeau since 1996 (2-5-1 ATS) is major culprit behind this bump.
Seattle at Arizona
Opened: Cardinals -3 ……….. Current: Cardinals -1
Arizona was 4-2 SU/ATS against the NFC West last season but QB Matt Flynn may have solved Seattle’s biggest off-season need
Pittsburgh at Denver
Opened: Broncos -2 …………. Current: Broncos -3
Key number and Manning factor; will likely be -3.5 within a month
San Diego at Oakland, Monday Night Football
Opened at ‘Pick em’ and latest line is Raiders -1