The AFC East has seen just one champion since 2009 and at -225 odds, the Patriots are once again favored to grab the title.
Despite the sure loss of Tom Brady through the opening month, New England holds onto their stranglehold as heavy divisional favorites.
ODDS TO WIN AFC EAST (Now & Then)
Here is each team’s current odds to win the division along with their previously posted AFC East odds from early June, in parentheses.
T-2. Bills +500 (+527)
T-2. Jets +500 (+527)
For a complete listing of each team preview, visit the EveryEdge sports betting forum!
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The common consensus for the Patriots is that they’ll be able to win at least two or three games under the guidance of Jimmy Garoppolo. It helps that Week’s 2-4 are home games and as far Bill Belichick is concerned, the pointspread doesn’t exist, but if New England loses Week 1 in Arizona it will be interesting to see how bettors react to the TD-plus lines currently posted vs. the Dolphins, Texans and Bills.
New England needs a strong effort from its O-Line, run game and defense to hold down the fort. They’ll also need to show progress in these facets all season to win more than four games on the road. 11 wins is an absolute probability but at -165, there are much more attractive futures betting options on the board.
Rex Ryan swears his defense will be better in 2016 and in reality, this could be Rex’s most believable statement to date. In the front seven It would be hard for them to get much worse. Buffalo couldn’t stop the run (4.4 RYPC) last year and their sack percentage was 31st overall (3.4%).
Improvements will not come easy for this defense. First round pick Shaq Lawson (shoulder) is out for six to eight weeks and DT Marcell Dareus will sit four weeks after missing a drug test. The offense will try to set the tone but there are very few soft spots in thier schedule.
Buffalo swept the Jets and Dolphins last year and lost both games vs. New England. In non-divisional play the Bills went 1-4 SU/ATS against teams whose win percentage was greater than .340. Barring a breakthrough from this D, it’s tough to see the Bills winning more than seven games.
NEW YORK JETS
After winning 10 games in 2015, it’s a bit surprising to see the books offering plus-money on the proposition that New York can hit nine wins. The issue is uncertainty. Can Ryan Fitzpatrick match his impressive numbers (.596 CP for 3,905 PY and 31:15 TD:INT)? Is Matt Forte still a top rated weapon? Is the defense ready to handle one of the league’s most demanding schedules?
Eight wins seems like a good target for the Jets. Perhaps nine if they had drawn the Pats in Week’s 1 through 4.
High expectations were met with subpar performance in 2015 and the team has made significant changes. Ryan Tannehill is bound to show some improvements under new HC Adam Gase and Arian Foster could help spark the run game, but his durability is a major question mark. No. 2 RB Jay Ajayi didn’t show us enough during his rookie year to depend on him if Foster goes down.
Miami’s defense has room for improvement and if everything goes according to plan, this team could become a solid bet when getting points. As far as straight-up wins are concerned, my projection is six or seven (leaning “Under” 7 at even money).